How the Decline of Unions Will Change America

Janus, the god of beginnings and endings, will likely increase inequality and pull Democrats leftward

Even before the Supreme Court piled in, American unions were in a bad way. In their heyday in the mid-1950s, more than 30% of workers were members. Today just 11% are. With only a toehold in the private sector — where they cover a mere 7% of workers — unions have become increasingly reliant on faithful public-sector employees, 34% of whom are members, to stay financially afloat and politically relevant. The Supreme Court’s ruling in the case of Janus v AFSCME at the end of June will shrink the rump of union members even further. What will the consequences of even lower union membership be?

Unions engage in both collective bargaining for their workers and political lobbying, typically for progressive causes and Democratic candidates. Among white Americans, blue-collar workers have had their heads turned by President Donald Trump even as union bosses remain steadfast Democrats, so that many members disagree with their union’s politics. Opting out of union membership — and its mandatory dues — would allow them to benefit from negotiated pay rises and holidays without incurring any of the cost. For decades, the compromise had been to make non-members who would otherwise free-ride on collective-bargaining agreements pay “agency fees” — the share of union dues that go to non-political operations and overheads. In its Janus decision, conservative jurists on the Supreme Court cited the First Amendment, to hold that such schemes violated the constitution on free-speech grounds. All public-sector workers covered by a union will now have to opt in and consent before paying anything. It is not a question of whether unions will lose members as a result of this, but how many.

Wisconsin provides one case study. When that state passed a law in 2011 limiting collective bargaining and banning agency fees its teachers’ union lost more than half its members and two-thirds of its dues within three years. Teachers’ unions, among the most powerful in the country, could lose a third of…

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